New SPERT-Beta Release for September 2016

Here is another new release of Statistical PERT – Beta Edition version 0.2 Build 5.  This is a development build, meaning this is still being developed before its first production release.  I expect the initial production release to be in early 2017.

In Build 5, I’ve added several more subjective terms to describe the most likely outcome.  Now, there are 10 subjective terms from which to choose:

  • Near certainty
  • Extremely high confidence
  • Very high confidence
  • High confidence
  • Medium-high confidence
  • Medium confidence
  • Medium-low confidence
  • Low confidence
  • Very Low confidence
  • Guesstimate

I’ve better aligned the results of this Beta Edition with the Normal Edition of Statistical PERT (which uses the normal distribution), meaning, that Medium or Medium-High confidences in the most likely outcome will be approximately the same for symmetrical bell-curves between the Normal Edition and Beta Edition of Statistical PERT.

Also in Build 5, I’ve added the ability to obtain probabilistic estimates from a triangular (or nearly triangular) distribution.

Instead of continuing to offer download files from this blog, all download will be done from the main download area of the Statistical PERT website.  This will allow me to track how many times different versions of Statistical PERT are downloaded.

Feel free to contact me with any questions.  As I get through the development cycle for this new edition, I’ll begin writing more about how this edition utilizes the beta distribution.

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