Monthly Archives: October 2016

New SPERT-Beta Release for October, 2016

The October release of the forthcoming SPERT Beta Edition development template just has mostly minor, cosmetic changes.  I updated the copyright, made quite a few formatting changes, and a few other, minor changes.

One key change I made was to the alpha-beta shape parameters for a condition of High Confidence in the most likely outcome.  The earlier version used a beta shape parameter of 7.5, but in Build 2 (of version 0.3), I’ve tamped down the beta value to equal 7.  Reason being, the percentage gap between High Confidence and Medium High confidence was 6.5% (using a constant planning estimate of 150 for a 3-point estimate of 60-120-240), and I wanted the probability change to be closer to the 4%-5% that is common when a different subjective judgment is made about the most likely outcome.  The current release is now Version 0.3, Build 2.

Download the October release of this development-only build.